Don't Overlook UMass

Since the earth shook on September 1, 2007 when App State pulled one of the biggest upsets in college football history over Michigan, FCS teams have regularly put it to FBS teams.

So far this year 6 FCS (D-1AA) schools have beat FBS schools (D-1A).

Jacksonville State over Ole Miss (49-48, 2OT)

North Dakota State over Kansas (6-3)

South Dakota over Minnesota (41-38)

Gardner-Webb over Akron (38-37)

Liberty over Ball State (27-23)

James Madison over No. 13 Virginia Tech (21-16)

Granted many times when this happens it is because the FBS team isn't very good anyways due to the fact they are in a rebuilding year or just never are very good historically. Just look at the schools listed above who lost. Only Ole Miss and Va. Tech standout as historically good programs. Every once in awhile a team gets the best of a team who is traditional powerhouse.

Last weekend both of these examples happened.

Minnesota recently has not been a good football team. They have shown signs from time to time over the last couple years but haven't been consistent. Currently they are the worst team in the Big 10. This Saturday Minnesota lost to South Dakota 41-38. This isn't a huge shocker because FCS teams have gotten the best of Minnesota a few times in the last couple years.

However Saturday's James Madison v. Virginia Tech game was the big surprise. Now first of all I want the athletic director job at Virginia Tech. Mostly because even I wouldn't be dumb enough to schedule a game 5 days after I play a game. And not just any game, a game against a top 5 school. I wouldn't have played any team after a game like that for at least 7 days if not more. I'm not bailing out Va-Tech here they should have taken care of business either way but it sure doesn't help when you have a schedule like that. I blame coach Beamer as well he agreed to it also. Now the preseason top 10 Hokies are 0-2.

This brings us to Saturday's match up Michigan v. UMass. The whole country has Denard "Shoelace" Robinson fever and Michigan is 2-0 for the 2nd straight year after another big win over ND. So what does UMass have to lose? Nothing. Michigan has everything to lose. Do I think Michigan will win? Yes. Am I a bit worried? A tad.

I still think Rich Rod will have his players ready to take care of business. They are all hungry for wins and a bowl trip. There isn't really any overlooking at this point because they still have a lot to prove.

So why have FCS teams been beating FBS teams?

My theories...

1. Since the exposure of more teams on TV and less scholarships parody has made its way through the D-1A ranks and now into the D-1AA.

2. These games against D-1A schools are circle games. By that I am these D-1AA schools have the game against a BCS school circled on their calendar as soon as its scheduled a year or two before its to take place. They plan and scheme for this game more than the BCS school would. Can you honestly tell me Virginia Tech took more time scheming for James Madison than James Madison did for Virginia Tech.

3. Along with theory 2 is theory 3. Game film. I am sure it is way easier to get good game film on D-1A schools than D-1AA. I am pretty sure ESPN, Big10 Network, or SEC Network is somewhere to be found at every D-1A game. This means you have different angles of the game as well as overall best quality and quantity of video. When is the last time you watch a FCS schools play another FCS school? If you did what station was it? If it wasn't ESPNU then I have no idea where you found it. How easy is it for James Madison to find good game film on Virginia Tech. Hmmm probably super easy since they played in the Chick-fil-A Bowl last Dec. 31 and played in the most hyped game of the season thus far on Labor Day. I wonder how much video was available for James Madison week 1 win over Morehead State? The video they did get I am sure is from one camera at one angle.

4. Not really a theory but a point to make. Good FCS teams have won most of these games.

App State won the FCS championship the year they beat Michigan. App State would have beat most D-1A schools that year.

Many of the teams who have beat D-1A schools this year are ranked in the top 25 FCS poll

James Madison #3

Liberty #15

North Dakota State #23

Jacksonville State #4

South Dakota #25

So 5 of the 6 teams that have won so far are in the FCS top 25 currently and two are top 5 teams. The only team not in the top 25 is Gardner-Webb but they did receive 156 votes to make them #30.

Notre Dame Gets Denarded

So the numbers put up by Denard Robinson resemble those that I put up in video game football. It doesn't seem real at this point. Here is what Denard has done in the last 2 games against two good teams.

Against UConn
19-22 186 yards passing 1 TD
29 attempts for 197 yards 1 TD

Against ND
24-20 244 yards passing 1 TD
28 attempts for 258 2 TD

430 yards passing
455 yards running
5 total TD's

I spent the whole game pacing the living room wearing my jersey. If I wasn't such a huge Michigan fan I would have enjoyed the game a lot most since it was so close. Either way it was a great win for Michigan. Despite a few big plays the defense actually played pretty well. I know that Crist was out for most of the first half but the defense still caused turnovers and did what was needed to give Michigan a chance to win the game.

Like I said about the UConn game I am worried about the 3rd down conversions. Last week we were able to convert but this week the conversion rate was terrible. Also the offense is way too reliant on Denard. Which I understand you rely on your QB to make plays but he is basically doing it all. We need more from the RB's. I would like to see them do more with the carries they do get.

All in all a great win and I look forward to UMass next week. I will have a full review and grade later this week. Go Blue

Michigan v. UConn grade B+

I apologize for the lack of substance in this post but due to the holiday weekend I didn't have a chance to put a lot into this one

The offense especially, Denard "Shoelace" Robinson looked great. The defense did what it needed to the do and the special teams were OK.

Offense - A-

The offense was good but even with Denard's performance I wouldn't call it great. They still had a lot of 3rd down conversions they had to convert and luckily they did. If this becomes a trend I don't think that is a feat they can continue to repeat on a regular basis. Also Denard won't rush for almost 200 yards and only throw 3 incomplete passes each week. I think the wind kept them from being able to throw down field. Also I don't want to see Denard rush the ball 29 times again especially come Big Ten season. That being said I can't cry too much they still put up 30 points against an apparent decent team.

Defense - B -

We all know there are tons of question marks in the secondary. However the front seven seem solid and played pretty well for the most part. The fumble caused in the red zone was awesome and good to see the defense not giving up. The tackling looked a lot better and the assignments seemed better also. UConn had a couple missed opportunities that could have changed some things but the defense still played good enough to give Michigan the win regardless. All I ask is that they play good enough each week to allow Michigan a chance to win.

Special teams - B-

The missed field goal I don't count because of the wind factor. Plus it was his first attempt ever and it was 40yards + so I will let it slide. The punting was pretty good as well as the punt coverage. The punt returning was OK except for the fumble that was luckily recovered. Those mistakes I'm sure will be highlighted in film this week to ensure it doesn't happen again, however it has happened a couple times the past few seasons. The short kickoffs I wasn't a fan of but once again I think the wind had a hand in that.

Overall I am happy with the performance. Like most if not all Michigan fans I was worried how it was going to pan out before the start of the game Saturday. I think we can all be pleased with the result. I feel pretty good heading into Brian Kelly's South Bend Saturday.

Real Quick on Tate

We need Tate. Gardner is not really to handle a Big Ten season and I really don't want another freshman starting at QB yet again. Tate will be needed at some point this season and I hope and believe he will get it together and get the 2nd position on the depth chart. I can't blame him for being upset but the way he showed it was immature. But I think Rich Rod knows how to handle Tate and it will resolve itself.

The Mountain West is Getting WACky and so is the BCS?

The college football conference shuffle has been pretty quiet since Nebraska announced it was heading to the Big Ten (12), Colorado and Utah making plans to join the current Pac-10, soon to be named Pac-12, and Boise State heading to the Mountain West.

Yesterday 2 1/2 weeks before the college football season is due to kick-off it looks like this could be the last season for the WAC after Nevada and Fresno State announced it will be going to the Mountain West...bringing the Mountain West total to 11 teams, if BYU decides to stick around. The WAC would be left with 6 teams Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, and Utah State.

I don't think you can have a viable conference with 6 teams. Here is what I foresee happening with the WAC in 2011.

1. Louisiana Tech doesn't really even fit geographically. I think Conference USA or Sun Belt would be a good fit for them not only talent wise but geographically, which would save them a ton on travel costs, including that every other year trip to Hawaii.

2. Hawaii seems to me as a team that would fit in a Mountain West conference, maybe even the PAC-10(12), except I think Boise State would be a better grab for the BCS conference than Hawaii.

3. Idaho is another team that would fit the Mountain West makeup. I don't see them going anywhere else unless the Big 12(10) gets desperate to hold on to the number 12. Idaho while a decent football team, they don't have what it takes in the other sports or market to make it in the Big 12(10) conference.

4. Utah State, San Jose State, and New Mexico State would all be a better fit in the Mountain West than anywhere else. They can't really fit in the PAC-10(12) or the Big 12(10).

So with these changes I predict here is how the conferences would look.

Mountain West

Air Force

BYU (Indy?)

Colorado State

New Mexico

San Diego State

TCU

UNLV

Wyoming

Boise State

Nevada

Fresno State

-------------

Hawaii

Idaho

Utah State

San Jose State

New Mexico State

Let's say BYU doesn't leave to be an independent, which I don't see any benefits for them doing so (especially now that Nevada and Fresno are coming to the MW), that would leave 16 teams in the conference and make the Mountain West the first 16 team super conference. Its a nice what if scenario.

For now back to the reality of the addition of Boise State, Nevada, and Fresno State. Does the Mountain West now become a BCS conference? 3 (5 if you count departing Utah and assume Hawaii joins) of their teams, with the addition of Boise State would have already played in a BCS bowl, which isn't bad considering the conference currently doesn't receive an automatic birth.

Here are BCS births by conference of teams that have played in a BCS game

ACC - 5 teams

Big East - 7 teams

Pac-10 - 7 teams

Big 12 - 7 teams

Big 10 - 7 teams

SEC -6 teams

Making the Mountain West a BCS school would make 7 BCS conferences. This would then almost make a perfect scenario for a playoff system with the 7 conference winners and 1 at large.

Pac-10 vs. Mountain West

Big 10 vs. Big 12
SEC vs ACC
Big East vs At large

This of course would be so awesome I can't really contain myself right now. And I am well aware I kind of got off topic about the Mountain West's expansion but it just creates such a perfect storm. And of course much like my awesome highly touted NHL proposal this one will never see the light of day. But it is still fun to play pretend at the age of 26.

The Fall of Troy

When it rains it pours. It seems like its been pouring in Ann Arbor since App State upset the Wolverines. I didn't think it would get any darker than that...but it sure has. I try to be an optimist, as you can see from an earlier post predicting a 8-4 regular season. And now I am really struggling to stay a glass half full kind of guy. For those of you who have not yet heard Troy Woolfolk has suffered a likely season ending dislocated ankle (insert Achilles and Battle of Troy references).

This is the 2nd big loss to the Michigan secondary in the last week and the season is still 2 1/2 weeks away. Lets recap what Michigan has lost in the defensive backfield in the last calendar year.

1. Boubacar Cissoko - highly recruited with big potential. Turns out he couldn't make the grade or do what was needed to stay on the team. Not an end of the world loss but still shrunk the depth chart in an already thin secondary.

2. Donovan Warren - decided not to stay for his senior season, which he probably should have since he was undrafted. Lucky for him he ended up signing with the Jets. This is probably the biggest loss to the secondary because not only was he their best player back there he would also lend some senior leadership and guidance to all the freshman we have coming in on that side of the ball.

3. Justin Turner - last week asked for and was granted a transfer. Looks like he will be heading to a Big East school at this point. Turner also like Cissoko good recruit with a lot of potential. Not sure if he was going to pan out as planned but I'd still rather have him back there with the hope that he was going to, instead of leaving.

4. Troy Woolfok - the latest and greatest one to fall. To Troy's credit at least he got injured and didn't have grade problems, discipline problems, or was a quitter. I feel for Troy, he has been the vocal leader this summer and I wish him a speedy recovery and hopefully a medical red shirt is in his future so we can see him next year...Rich Rod hopes he is around to see him as well.

So there you have it 4 players ranging from good to decent that are no longer playing for the Wolverines but should be.

This has brought me to amend my previous 8-4 regular season prediction. I now say a 7-5. I think with or without Turnder and Woolfolk the Wolverines have what it takes to get 7, the only problem is as a good friend put it, "the margin of error has decreased." My hope is the this latest blow to the Maize and Blue is used to rally the team. This team has been through so much in the last 2 years and I see Woolfolk continuing to be the vocal leader whether he is in pads or not. This team still has talent and potential to do good things this year.

So here is to the clouds over Ann Arbor finally breaking up and letting some sun shine through. It is darkest before the dawn and it has never been darker in my lifetime in Ann Arbor than it is now. September 4th will be the barometer of how the weather fairs this season.

Go Blue

If I was Gary Bettman - How I would fix the NHL

Hockey has always been one of my favorite sports. Its right up there with college football and baseball. The problem is the NHL is a broken product. Living in Michigan we have been blessed with one of the greatest not only hockey franchises of all-time, but one of the greatest sport franchises of all-time. The Red Wings are right up there with the New York Yankees, the Boston Celetics, and the Dallas Cowboys. The Wings have been on top of the NHL for a generation now, so we have a skewed image of the NHL in its current status.

That being said even Red Wings fans know there are problems with the NHL and almost of them point to Gary Bettman. Under the 17 year Bettman reign there have been two lockouts. Bettman has moved teams into nontraditional markets such as Phoenix, Florida, and Atlanta to name a few while taking them away from Canada and moving the North Stars to Dallas.

One of the problems currently facing the NHL is the schedule. It was changed a couple years ago and it has not worked. The NHL is starting to get it right again, however I believe there is a problem with the alignment of the leagues' conferences. I would realign the teams and the schedule.

The reasons for changing the conferences is this... Currently the NHL is East vs. West. Most of the population of the country lives in the East. This is problematic especially come playoff time. Very few people living in the eastern time zone will stay up to watch a San Jose vs. Anaheim match up. No one wants to stay up for a game that starts at 10pm est and goes to at least 1am est (barring overtime or overtimes). There is no reason for them to. However if the teams were realigned and east coast teams were in the same conference as west coast teams there would be a reason to stay up and watch the Rangers take on the Kings at 10pm est. Heck they should start the game at 9pm which would still get 2 hours of eastern time zone prime time viewing instead of 1.

Along the same line of reorganizing these teams for viewership, it also helps teams such as Detroit, Chicago, Nashville and Columbus who are almost guaranteed to play a west coast team in the playoffs. The same goes for west coast teams having to travel to those cities. This takes a lot out of these teams during the 2nd season. Currently Eastern Conference teams do not have this problem. Every team in the Eastern Conference is in the eastern time zone. The new alignment would make it so every team might have to travel to the west coast, midwest, or east for a series like teams in the NFL and MLB have to do.

Here is how I would change the conferences. I kept the divisions the same except I moved Dallas from the west to the midwest and put Vancouver in their place. This just makes sense geographically. I also brought back the Campbell and Wales Conference names. I also split up the original 6 (neither original or 6) into 3 in each conference. I don't like how there are currently 4 in the East and 2 in the West. The NHL needs old tyme hockey.

Clarance Campbell Conference

East
New Jersey
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
NY Rangers
NY Islanders

Midwest
Chicago
Detroit
Nashville
St. Louis
Columbus

West
San Jose
Phoenix
LA
Anaheim
Vancouver

Prince of Wales Conference

East
Washington
Atlanta
Carolina
Tampa
Florida

Midwest
Buffalo
Ottawa
Boston
Montreal
Toronto

West
Dallas
Colorado
Calgary
Minnesota
Edmonton

Each team plays every team in the league not in their division at least twice, once at home and once on the road. This would leave 32 games left on every team's schedule. Then every team would play each team in their conference that isn't in their division a third time. This would be a once at home once on the road scenarios as well except the third game would rotate location each year. For instance Detroit would play San Jose twice at home then once on the road. The next year they would play two times in San Jose and once in Detroit.

This would leave 22 games left on every team's schedule. The rest of the 22 games would be against divisional opponents. So each divisional team would play 5 games against each other, the 2 remaining games would be rotated each year. So for instance Detroit's divisional match ups would equal this Chicago 6 games, Columbus 6 games, Nashville 5 games, St. Louis 5 games. The next year Detroit would play St. Louis and Nashville 6 times and Chicago and Columbus 5 times.

This is what Detroit's 2011-12 schedule would breakdown as...

Prince of Wales opponents once at home once on the road = 30 games

Non-divisional Campbell opponents 3 games each = 30 games

Divisional opponents two teams 5 times and two teams 6 times = 22 games

30+30+22=82 games

Personally I think this would help the league out quite a bit. It would guarantee you see every NHL team enter your favorite teams arena every year. It also ensures that the NHL's superstars are being seen across the country and not just regionally. Plus the NHL needs to dump NBC and get back with ESPN. The NHL has the ability to be bigger than the NBA, I don't think it can ever surpass the NFL or MLB, but it can sure be better than what it currently is.

The Hood is Back...But are the Wolverines?

A couple years ago 8 wins in a season was considered a down year for the most successful college football program of all time. Yet 8 is the amount of wins the maize and blue have forged in the last 2 seasons combined. "In Rod We Trust" has quickly become "Bring back 3 yards and a cloud of dust." With the recent success (of former Wolverine) Coach Harbaugh at Stanford, many are hoping to bring back the BO'dacious QB to right the ship in Ann Arbor. This is of course if Rich Rod can't muster at 6 wins and a bowl victory for 7 or 7 wins and a bowl loss.

Now no one that is a Wolverine fan likes to see the team miss a bowl game two years in a row. In fact since most of us have been alive we have never seen Michigan miss a bowl game period. Change has been a buzz word in our society for a couple years now. Michigan was due for change. The change so far hasn't been a good one. Last Michigan was off to a great start and had us believing they were back. After Molk's injury and a banged up Forcier reality set in as the Wolverines failed to win a game in the last month and a half of the season finishing 1 win shy of going to a bowl game.

So what is the change for this year?

Denard? A secondary? A kicking game?

Hopefully all of the above. At the very least a Denard that can throw the ball and a secondary that can stop something and a kicking team that can at least make consistent field goals inside 35 yards.

Here is the preseason predictions for W's and L's

Sat, Sept 4 vs Connecticut -

One of the most underrated Big East teams in recent years and have done well since becoming D-1A in 2000 and since being a part of the Big East since 2004. This is a must win for the Wolverines. The unveiling of the renovated stadium will hopefully foreshadow a new era in Michigan football and bring it back to its winning ways. Prediction W (1-0)

Sat, Sept 11 @ Notre Dame -

We can't forget the last time Michigan went to South Bend. They spotted the golden domers 21 points and still almost found a way to come back and win. Since last years exciting win many things have changed between the two teams. While neither team ended up bowling last holiday season, Notre Dame brought in GVSU, Central Michigan, and Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly to the helm. I think this will get ND out of the slump they have been in for the past decade but I believe Michigan has enough this year to get by...but its close. Prediction W. (2-0)

Sat, Sept 18 vs Massachusetts -

This should be a near repeat of last years Delaware State game...and if not. Well I don't even want to think about it. Prediction W. (3-0)

Sat, Sept 25 vs Bowling Green -

This game should make the Wolverines 4-0 to start 2010 or worst case 3-1 if they lose to either ND or Uconn. Prediction W. (4-0)

Sat, Oct 2 @ Indiana -

Last year Indiana turned some heads and put on a great show in the BIG HOUSE. They followed that up later in the year giving Iowa quite a scare. This isn't automatic like UMass and Bowling Green but it should be a win by 10 or more. Prediction W. (5-0) Conference (1-0)

Sat, Oct 9 vs Michigan State -

OK so by this point I have Michigan 5-0 or at least 4-1. Either way both would be great starts. 5-0 would match last years win total and 4-1 would put Michigan in great position to still make a bowl. MSU starts off with Western Michigan which should be a win after Hiller's departure. Then Florida Atlantic played at Ford Field which they should win. Then home against ND I will call that a toss up. Then a win against Northern Colorado. Then a tough match up against Wisconsin at home. I have to give them a loss there. So that being said come Oct. 9 the Spartans could anywhere between 3-2 and 4-1. I highly doubt the start off 5-0. I like Michigan in the win against MSU this year. Michigan will be coming off Indiana while MSU is coming off a tough Wisconsin team. Michigan hasn't lost 3 in a row to MSU since 1968 I believe, and I feel that will continue to be the case but it will be close. Prediction W. (6-0) half way point worst case (4-2). Conference (2-0)

Sat, Oct 16 vs Iowa -

At this point I feel like I'm drinking kool-aid. I have Michigan 6-0 to start the season. And lets say worst case 4-2, still in good position to go bowling and save Rich Rod. This is where the luck runs out. Michigan put up a great fight against Iowa last year in the corn but I don't see Big Blue getting a W from Iowa this year. I think Denard would love to makeup for last years late game interception but Iowa will be too much for the Wolverines. Prediction L. (6-1) Conference (2-1)

Sat, Oct 30 @ Penn State -

Oh Happy Valley. This place hasn't been happy at all for the Wolverines in recent memory. I want to forget 2008's trip to the Beaver. This one won't be as ugly but I don't see a W. Michigan drops 2 in a row. Prediction L. (6-2) Conference (2-2)

Sat, Nov 6 Illinois

Last year in Champagne was well words can't describe. This year will be different. Closer than expected but Wolverines break the short losing streak. Prediction W. (7-2) Conference (3-2)

Sat, Nov 13 @ Purdue -

The last few Michigan Purdue games have resulted in something closer to b-ball scores than football...OK maybe not but they have been offensive shootouts. 2008 the hook and latter gave Purdue a 48-42 win. Last year Michigan was boiler up'ed again 38-36. This year Michigan has a swagger at 7-2 and looking to beat Purdue and avoid a 3 game losing streak to the locomotives. Michigan is on the positive side of the shootout this year. Prediction W. (8-2) Conference (4-2)

Sat, Nov 20 Wisconsin -

In 2008 the Wolverines surprised everyone, including themselves when they came back in the 2nd half to beat the Badgers. Last year it was Wisconsin with the 2nd half magic, blasting 24 points in the 2nd half to Michigan's 7. Even though its at home the Badgers are playing for a Big Ten title at this point and with that a BCS game. Prediction L. (8-3) Conference (4-3)

Sat, Nov 27 @ Ohio State -

Remember in 2003 when Michigan beat Ohio State? Well that won't happen this year in the Shoe. Ohio State plays at Wisconsin, home against Penn State and at Iowa the week before Michigan. I am not sure if Ohio State is playing for a Big Ten title based off that but we all know they probably will be. The only hope for Michigan is the Iowa beats up on Ohio State more than Wisconsin beats up on Michigan. Prediction...sadly L. (8-4) Conference (4-4)

Based off this scenario for the season (barring key injuries and a decent defense), in one season Michigan matches its overall win total for the last 2 seasons combined and surpasses their Big Ten win total for the previous 2 years. Worst case 6-6 and a bowl win for overall 7-6.

Like I said at the start today, 8 wins was a disappointment 4 years ago and today it would be a blessing. 8 wins would keep Rich Rod, send Michigan bowling (most likely at 8-4 (4-4) the Outback Bowl), and get them ready for what would looks like a legit shot at a Big Ten title in 2011.

Either way September 4th can't get here soon enough. Go Blue.